In China, the monthly production of battery cells with the cobalt-free chemistry LFP (LiFePO4) finally surpassed NCM. This is big news!
LFP now represents 52 % of all battery cell production in China, but its market share is expected to grow even more in the coming months. In most electric cars NCM will be relegated to more expensive trim levels, while LFP will become the standard battery cell chemistry.
While Chinese automakers have been extremely fast to adopt LFP as the standard battery cell chemistry, other automakers will follow this strategy.
Tesla, Volkswagen and Renault already stated that LFP will become the chemistry that allows to mass produce electric cars that compete with ICE (Internal Combustion Engine) cars in price and availability.
#China #NMC Q1 production at 69K t, ⬆️168.7% YoY.#LFP Q1 at 66K t, ⬆️313.8% YoY.
LFP monthly production share increased to 52% from 42%, surpassed NMC for 1st time.
(CICC) pic.twitter.com/fiBFANLm2O— Moneyball (@DKurac) May 17, 2021
However, the high demand for LFP battery cells might bring a temporary price increase, since production isn’t enough to supply all automakers that want them. To prevent this, Tesla is already looking for new LFP battery cell suppliers and Reuters reports that EVE might be the next one to sign a deal. Currently, only CATL supplies LFP battery cells to Tesla.
Anyway, LNMO is another cobalt-free chemistry that is also expected to soon increase its market share. This is a high-voltage alternative to LFP that could become mainstream in few years.
SVOLT is an established battery cell maker that will go all in with LNMO very soon, but CATL also has big plans for this cobalt-free chemistry.
Currently, #CATL suggests #LFP solution for 400 km range, high-voltage ternary solution for 500 km range and rich nickel solution for 600 km range vehicles, GGII cites insiders.
CTP to increase LFP's PV share, but mid- and long-term rich-nickel to stay mainstream, GGII added. pic.twitter.com/nfu2jTBQWE— Moneyball (@DKurac) February 26, 2020
In terms of costs at the battery pack level with the CTP (cell-to-pack) technology, this is what I currently estimate.
Nonetheless, don’t expect to get real figures from automakers. They still want us – and especially policy makers – to think that electric cars are extremely expensive to make, so we don’t pressure them to abandon their investments already made in ICE technology.
